Hilo
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Kona
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 70 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the late evening and overnight. Haze through the night. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Waikoloa
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers early in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 62 to 70 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Synopsis
Light winds will prevail through the weekend, with daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes common across the state. A cold front west of the state will bring moderate south to southeast winds to the area Monday through Wednesday. Winds will ease from west to east Thursday, with the front arrival potentially bringing a chance for significant rainfall to the western islands Friday.
Discussion
A stationary front lies about 300 miles north of Kauai this afternoon. A deep low is positioned far to the west northwest with an associated front west of the area. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered to the east northeast with the associated ridge over the islands. Visible satellite imagery shows cloud build ups over the islands due to the sea breezes.
Light winds will prevail with nighttime land and daytime sea breezes common across much of the state through the rest of the weekend. The front to the west will edge closer to the state early next week, while the high pressure to the northeast edges closer to the islands. As a result, moderate southeasterly winds should prevail over the eastern end of the state, while moderate southerly winds hold over the western islands from Monday through Wednesday. A front appears to approach from the northwest toward the end of next week, which should gradually ease winds to light levels from west to east by Thursday.
As for the remaining weather details, not too much change to the overall weather pattern is expected through Monday. Mid-level ridging will hold over the state, keeping showers limited and near the coast at night, with daytime heating driven shower development over the island interiors each afternoon. Ridging aloft appears to break down a bit Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing southerly flow bringing some deeper moisture northward into the western islands. As a result, the expectation is for an increase in shower coverage, particularly over the western islands. Easing winds Thursday should result in showers favoring areas near the coast at night and over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. A cold front could push into the western islands Friday, bringing a better shot for some more significant rainfall.
Aviation
A stable and gentle to locally moderate east to southeast flow will continue to produce predominantly VFR conditions through Sunday. A weak surface ridge just north of Kauai will drive gentle to locally moderate easterly winds around the Big Island and Maui while weaker east to southeast winds persist elsewhere. Daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes will overpower the background flow, leading to interior clouds and spotty showers during the afternoon hours. Due to the stable conditions and lack of significant moisture, only isolated MVFR conditions are expected, with no AIRMETs anticipated. Overnight land breezes will lead to diminished clouds and shower chances.
Marine
A surface ridge lingering over the islands will keep winds light and variable through Sunday with local land/sea breezes. Winds will then shift further out of the south and strengthen to moderate to locally breezy levels from Monday through the middle of next week as a low pressure system and a front northwest of the state drift east towards the Hawaiian islands. The stronger southerly winds will likely be observed over the western end of the state. The front associated with this low could approach the western end of the coastal waters during the later half of next week.
Surf along exposed north and east facing shores will persist through the weekend due to a small north-northeast swell moving through. Guidance shows this source slowly fading tomorrow through Monday, with a north and west swell arriving around Tuesday. The north swell may linger into the second half of next week. In the long range outlook, a large north swell is possible towards the end of next week depending on the track and intensity of the current low to the northwest, stay tuned.
Surf along south facing shores will remain up tonight, with a return to seasonable levels Sunday into early next week as a small south swell moves through.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov